HUAYOU COBALT(603799) 东吴证券·2025-01-26 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [1] Core Views - The implementation of the 2024 equity incentive plan demonstrates the management's confidence in the company's future performance [8] - The company is expected to see significant growth in nickel product shipments, with projections of 170,000 tons in 2024, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [8] - The overall profitability is anticipated to improve as nickel and lithium prices are currently at a low point, with potential for profit elasticity as prices rebound [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from 66,304 million RMB in 2023 to 59,496 million RMB in 2024, before increasing to 67,680 million RMB in 2025 and 71,832 million RMB in 2026 [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 3,351 million RMB in 2023 to 4,356 million RMB in 2024, and further to 4,779 million RMB in 2025 and 5,181 million RMB in 2026 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.98 RMB in 2023 to 2.57 RMB in 2024, reaching 2.82 RMB in 2025 and 3.06 RMB in 2026 [1][9] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11x for 2024, 10x for 2025, and 9x for 2026, with a target price of 42 RMB based on a 15x P/E for 2025 [8][9] - The company's integrated advantages are highlighted as a significant factor in its valuation [8]