山西焦煤：期待否极泰来

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to face a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 2.85 to 3.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.1% to 57.9% [1] - The company is proactively shutting down non-coal businesses to optimize its operational efficiency, including the voluntary shutdown of the Xishan Thermal Power generator, which has been operating at a loss [1] - The company is actively seeking capacity expansion through both internal growth and external acquisitions, including winning exploration rights for coal and associated bauxite resources in Shanxi province [2] - Coking coal prices have reached low levels, with expectations for a rebound due to recent policy changes and increased market activity post-Chinese New Year [2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 55.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 46.57 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 16.1% [4] - The net profit is expected to drop significantly from 6.77 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 52.6% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decrease from 1.19 yuan in 2023 to 0.57 yuan in 2024 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13.2x for 2024, increasing to 17.5x in 2025 [4] Market Context - The company is positioned as a leading player in the coking coal industry, with a focus on expanding its resource base and improving operational efficiency [2] - The report suggests that the market dynamics for coking coal may shift from a weak reality to a strong expectation, potentially leading to price increases in the near future [2]