GDPD(600795) 长江证券·2025-01-26 08:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 9.5 billion and 9.85 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 69.38% to 75.62% [5][10]. - The company's fourth-quarter net profit is projected to be between 309 million and 659 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 16 million yuan in the same period last year [2][10]. - The performance of clean energy is under pressure due to weak hydropower output, while the company is focusing on the upcoming expansion cycle of hydropower [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company reported a decrease of 1.45% in thermal power generation in the fourth quarter, but stable performance is expected due to a decline in coal prices [2][10]. - Hydropower generation in the fourth quarter decreased by 13.85%, leading to significant pressure on hydropower performance [10]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a full-year net profit of 9.5 billion to 9.85 billion yuan for 2024, with a non-recurring net profit expected to decrease by 12.73% to 19.92% [5][10]. - The average on-grid price for thermal power in the fourth quarter was 435.65 yuan per megawatt-hour, slightly down by 0.16% year-on-year [10]. Future Outlook - The company plans to start the production cycle for 3.52 million kilowatts of hydropower units in the second half of 2025, indicating a positive medium-term outlook [10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.54 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.44 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.78, 10.62, and 9.61 [10].