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大唐发电:符合预期,24年业绩预增208%至252%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a consolidated net profit of 4.2 to 4.8 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 208% to 252%, which aligns with previous expectations [3][6]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to a combination of increased electricity generation and reduced average electricity prices, with the average on-grid electricity price at 451.40 yuan per megawatt-hour, down by about 3.22% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - As of December 31, 2024, the company and its subsidiaries completed an on-grid electricity generation of approximately 2,693.22 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of about 3.81% [3]. - The company’s coal-fired electricity generation reached 1,944.63 billion kilowatt-hours, up 1.01% year-on-year, while gas-fired generation was 195.91 billion kilowatt-hours, up 1.77% year-on-year [4]. Renewable Energy Contribution - Wind power generation increased significantly, with on-grid electricity generation of 173.23 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year growth of 23.05%. Solar power generation also saw a substantial increase of 44.12%, reaching 58.09 billion kilowatt-hours [5]. - The company added 2,594.2 megawatts of wind power and 1,659.82 megawatts of solar power capacity in 2024, contributing to the overall growth in renewable energy output [5]. Financial Projections - The report projects the company's net profit for 2024 to be between 4.22 billion and 4.8 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the following years, reaching 4.32 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.36 billion yuan in 2026 [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.23 yuan for both 2025 and 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.7 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation [7][11].