华能水电：装机扩张电量提升，全年业绩稳健增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng Hydropower is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 7.848 billion to 9.087 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.75% to 18.97% [2][5]. - The company's hydropower generation is projected to reach 107.929 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 2.53%, driven by improved water inflow and new unit commissioning [2][10]. - The renewable energy generation is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 112.012 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 4.62% year-on-year, supported by a substantial increase in installed capacity [2][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Outlook - The hydropower generation is expected to benefit from slightly improved water inflow, with the Lancang River basin showing a 0.5% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. - The company’s new units, including the Toba and Huanliangbao power stations, are expected to contribute to the overall generation capacity [10]. - The overall generation volume is anticipated to be supported by both volume and price increases, with market prices in Yunnan expected to rise due to ongoing supply-demand tensions [10]. Financial Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.52 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.14, 18.40, and 16.91 [10]. - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 25.052 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of approximately 56% [13]. Expansion and Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity with the commissioning of new units, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth prospects [10]. - A joint venture with Huaneng International to develop an integrated coal and renewable energy project is also in the pipeline, which includes a coal power capacity of 2 million kW [10].