GANFENG LITHIUM(002460) 东吴证券·2025-01-26 12:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has released a performance forecast indicating a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with an expected loss of 1.75 to 1.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 128% to 142%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between -960 million to -480 million yuan, a decrease of 118% to 136% [2] - In Q4, the company is expected to report a net profit loss of 1.46 to 0.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -37% to +29% and a quarter-on-quarter change of -1317% to -733%. The non-recurring net profit for Q4 is anticipated to be between -600 million to -120 million yuan, showing an increase of 64% to 93% year-on-year [2] - The company’s lithium salt sales are expected to reach over 120,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%, with Q4 sales projected at over 30,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The Goulamina project is set to commence production in December 2024, and the Cauchari-Olaroz project is expected to see an increase in capacity utilization, with self-supply rates projected to rise to around 60% by 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 41.823 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline to 15.531 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 52.90% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop from 4.947 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 135.38% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -0.87 yuan in 2024, down from 2.45 yuan in 2023 [1] Production and Capacity - The company’s lithium salt production capacity is expected to exceed 270,000 tons by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in self-mined production anticipated for 2025 [2][3] - The Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Mali is expected to produce over 300,000 tons in 2025, contributing approximately 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [3] Profitability Outlook - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to -1.75 billion yuan, 1.322 billion yuan, and 1.848 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -135%, +176%, and +40% [4] - The average price of lithium salt in Q4 2024 is expected to be over 75,000 yuan per ton, with a projected non-recurring loss of over 10,000 yuan per ton primarily due to inventory impairment [2][4]