Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an annual revenue of approximately 14.2 billion, with profits likely at the upper limit of the forecast at 1.1 billion, both in line with expectations [7] - For Q4, revenue is projected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit growth of 19%, maintaining a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.4% year-on-year [8] - The company anticipates a significant contribution from new product launches and store expansions in 2025, with improved profitability from lawnmowers in Q4 and a stable performance from scooters [9] Revenue Analysis - The company expects to complete a target of 2.5 million units for two-wheeled vehicles in 2024, with approximately 400,000 units in Q4 [11] - The all-terrain vehicle segment is projected to reach 1 billion in revenue for the year, with Q4 revenue around 250 million, and is expected to break even [11] - The lawnmower segment is expected to generate about 100 million in revenue for Q4, showing a slight improvement in profitability compared to Q3 [11] Profitability Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 14.2 billion, 17.9 billion, and 21.4 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39%, 26%, and 20% [9] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.1 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.3 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 85%, 45%, and 43% [9] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 26.9% in 2023 to 32.1% by 2026 [12] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 11.0% in 2023 to 22.2% in 2026 [12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 35.44 in 2023 to 16.62 by 2026 [12]
九号公司2024Q4预告点评：景气延续符合预期