SAIC MOTOR(600104) 东方证券·2025-01-26 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 20 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in operating profit in Q4 2024, with a forecasted non-GAAP net profit of 8.24 to 27.24 billion CNY, marking a substantial increase from Q3 2024 [7]. - The overall sales volume for Q4 2024 is projected to be 1.3637 million units, reflecting a 65.8% increase from Q3 2024, driven by improvements in both joint venture and self-owned brands [7]. - The company anticipates a continued recovery in profitability in 2025, supported by ongoing reforms and strategic adjustments in both self-owned and joint venture brands [7]. Financial Forecasts - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with a notable decrease in 2024 due to asset impairment provisions [2][4]. - Revenue is expected to decline to 611.672 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 674.246 billion CNY in 2025 and 721.878 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 10.2% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026 [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to improve gradually from 10.6% in 2024 to 11.0% in 2026, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 [4][8]. Sales and Market Performance - The company’s sales performance in Q4 2024 is expected to benefit from a recovery in both joint venture and self-owned brands, with significant sales increases reported for major brands [7]. - The report highlights that the company’s retail sales have outpaced wholesale sales, indicating a positive trend in market demand [6]. Summary of Financial Data - The company reported a revenue of 726.199 billion CNY in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.106 billion CNY, down 12.5% from the previous year [4][8]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to be between 1.5 to 1.9 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 87% to 90% year-on-year due to asset impairment [7].