巨化股份：制冷剂价格持续上涨，长期逻辑向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [27]. Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant industry is expected to benefit from improved supply and demand dynamics, with a positive long-term outlook for refrigerant prices due to increasing overseas demand and a concentrated supply structure [4]. - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants have seen an increase, with R32 contract prices rising to approximately 41,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a positive market response [4]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 25.3 billion yuan, 29.5 billion yuan, and 34.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, alongside substantial profit increases [4]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Data - Total shares outstanding: 2,699.75 million - Total market capitalization: 68,492.56 million - Circulating market capitalization: 68,492.56 million - Highest/Lowest price in December: 26.72/14.25 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 33.87% - Net asset value per share: 6.32 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (TTM): 47.10 - Price-to-book ratio (PB): 4.01 - Return on equity: 7.37% [1]. Financial Projections - Expected revenue for 2024: 25.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5% - Expected revenue for 2025: 29.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.4% - Expected revenue for 2026: 34.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% - Expected net profit for 2024: 1.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 110% - Expected net profit for 2025: 3.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 98.1% - Expected net profit for 2026: 6.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59% [4][5]. Industry Overview - The refrigerant market is characterized by a high concentration of supply, with CR3 and CR5 ratios exceeding 70% and 90% for major refrigerants by 2025, indicating a stable competitive environment [4]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing exit of gray capacity will further optimize the competitive order, maintaining a high level of market prosperity [4].