百利天恒：双抗ADC先锋，携手BMS逐鹿全球

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Baili Tianheng with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 311.32 CNY [9][10]. Core Views - BL-B01D1 is identified as the core growth driver for the company, with potential peak sales reaching approximately 20 billion CNY globally. The product is currently in seven Phase III clinical trials, covering major cancer types such as NSCLC and breast cancer, with the first NDA submission expected within the year [1][2]. - The collaboration with BMS for BL-B01D1, involving an upfront payment of 800 million USD and a total deal value of 8.4 billion USD, is expected to enhance the product's global competitiveness [1][3]. - The report highlights the innovative pipeline of the company, including multiple ADC and bispecific antibody products, which are anticipated to lead the next generation of cancer therapies [4][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baili Tianheng focuses on the development of innovative biopharmaceuticals, particularly in the ADC and bispecific antibody sectors, aiming for a global market presence [17][33]. - The company has established a leading ADC development platform and has multiple products in clinical stages, including BL-B01D1, which is positioned as a first-in-class (FIC) dual-target ADC [17][39]. Clinical Development - BL-B01D1 has shown promising early clinical data across various indications, including NSCLC and breast cancer, with a focus on expanding its application to over ten solid tumors [18][92]. - The report emphasizes the importance of 2025 as a critical year for the overseas potential of BL-B01D1, with two early clinical trials in the US and the initiation of global Phase III trials expected [3][24]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 5.807 billion CNY for 2024, with a net profit of 3.595 billion CNY, reflecting significant growth driven by the commercialization of BL-B01D1 [6][226]. - The DCF valuation method estimates the company's target market value at 124.8 billion CNY, corresponding to the target price of 311.32 CNY per share [6][226]. Market Potential - The report anticipates that BL-B01D1 will achieve peak sales of 4.66 billion CNY in China and 5.78 billion USD in the US, driven by its broad coverage of major cancer types and its innovative therapeutic approach [226][92]. - The ADC market is expected to grow significantly, with BL-B01D1 positioned to capture a substantial share due to its differentiated mechanism and clinical efficacy [57][60]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that BL-B01D1 is well-positioned against competitors in the ADC space, with its unique design and clinical data suggesting it could become a leading treatment option in multiple indications [67][80]. - The company is also advancing other products, such as BL-M07D1 and SI-B001, which are expected to complement BL-B01D1 and enhance overall revenue potential [226][227].