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软通动力:2024年业绩预告点评:短期业绩波动不改长期前景,华为产业链龙头潜力可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - Short-term performance fluctuations do not alter the long-term outlook, with significant potential as a leader in the Huawei supply chain [2][3]. - The company has experienced substantial business growth due to strategic acquisitions, although profits have declined due to increased interest expenses and higher sales and integration costs [1][2]. - The integration of hardware and software, along with a focus on core business areas post-acquisition, is expected to gradually reduce the negative impact on profits [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit for 2024 between 130 million to 190 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 64.41% to 75.65% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 50 million to 75 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 83.76% to 89.17% year-on-year [1]. Business Growth and Strategy - The company has significantly expanded its business scale through strategic acquisitions, indicating successful strategic implementation [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company's PC brand achieved a market share of 10% in the domestic desktop and notebook market, ranking second with a year-on-year growth rate of 123% [2]. - The company is focusing on the integration of Huawei's core technologies and the trend of domestic substitution, with successful launches of new products and solutions [2]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024 are expected to reach 30.77 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 75% [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 187 million yuan, with a significant decline of 64.9% compared to 2023 [4]. - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit to 329 million yuan in 2025 and 541 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 163X and 99X [3][4].