SEAMILD FOODS(002956) 德邦证券·2025-01-27 08:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ximai Food (002956.SZ) as a first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - Ximai Food, established in 1994, is a leading player in the oat food industry with a comprehensive supply chain [8]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth over the past five years, with total revenue increasing from 851 million yuan in 2018 to 1.578 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 13.1% [25]. - The oat industry in China is projected to reach a market size of 10.134 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth potential due to low per capita consumption compared to developed countries [31][33]. - The company is diversifying its sales channels, with a notable increase in online sales, particularly through platforms like Douyin [39][42]. - The acquisition of Chengdu Desai Kanggu in March 2024 marks the company's entry into the yogurt-topped oat market, expected to contribute to future revenue growth [49]. Company Overview - Ximai Food is recognized as the "first oat stock" in China, focusing on the entire industry chain from breeding to sales [8]. - The company has a stable and concentrated ownership structure, primarily held by the Xie family [9]. - The product matrix includes pure oats, composite oats, and cold oats, with composite oats rapidly gaining market share [14]. Financial Analysis - The company's net profit has faced pressure, declining from 137 million yuan in 2018 to 115 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of -3.4% [25]. - The gross profit margin has been affected by rising raw material costs, with a margin of 44.5% in 2023 [27]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.968 billion yuan, 2.404 billion yuan, and 2.923 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 134 million yuan, 191 million yuan, and 243 million yuan [52]. Industry Analysis - The oat industry in China is characterized by a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan, with a projected CAGR of 3.5% from 2019 to 2024 [31]. - Instant oats are expected to continue being the mainstream product, while online sales channels are increasingly important [32]. - The industry is currently dominated by a few key players, with Ximai Food holding a market share of 26% [33]. Future Development - The company is enhancing its channel penetration and has established a robust sales network with 1,718 suppliers as of the end of 2023 [39]. - The rapid growth of snack wholesale channels is expected to provide additional revenue opportunities [41]. - The company aims to leverage its strong customer loyalty and pricing power to benefit from the growth of the snack wholesale market [41].