森麒麟：2024年盈利高增，摩洛哥工厂预计2025年大规模放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with net profit forecasted to be between 2.1 billion to 2.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.45% to 72.45% [7]. - The Moroccan factory is anticipated to ramp up production significantly in 2025, with an expected output of 6 to 8 million tires, contributing positively to the company's performance [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 7.842 billion yuan - 2024E: 8.964 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.31%) - 2025E: 11.543 billion yuan (growth rate: 28.77%) - 2026E: 13.209 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.43%) [2][8] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 1.369 billion yuan - 2024E: 2.281 billion yuan (growth rate: 66.65%) - 2025E: 2.575 billion yuan (growth rate: 12.88%) - 2026E: 2.910 billion yuan (growth rate: 13.03%) [2][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 1.33 yuan - 2024E: 2.22 yuan - 2025E: 2.50 yuan - 2026E: 2.83 yuan [2][8] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 11.61% - 2024E: 17.09% - 2025E: 16.17% - 2026E: 15.45% [2][8] - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2023A: 18.79 - 2024E: 11.27 - 2025E: 9.99 - 2026E: 8.83 [2][8] Market Dynamics - The tire market is experiencing growth, with China's tire export volume expected to reach 7.95 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5% [7]. - The company is focusing on high-end automotive manufacturers and has received certifications from major global automakers, enhancing its brand influence [7]. Production Capacity Expansion - The Moroccan factory is set to begin large-scale production in 2025, with customer orders exceeding planned capacity, which is expected to significantly boost the company's performance in the coming years [7].