HDAA(600316) 天风证券·2025-01-27 10:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hongdu Aviation with a target price of 42.00 CNY per share, reflecting a potential upside of over 20% from the current price of 30.74 CNY [6][71]. Core Insights - Hongdu Aviation has established a dual business model focusing on trainer aircraft and defense products, benefiting from both domestic demand recovery and international trade opportunities [1][4]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in related procurement, projecting a 64% rise in 2025, indicating strong demand recovery [2][61]. - The demand for trainer aircraft is driven by the need for upgraded military training systems and increased operational intensity, with Hongdu being a rare leader in the full spectrum of trainer aircraft production [3][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hongdu Aviation, established in 1999, has undergone multiple asset integrations to form a dual business structure focusing on trainer aircraft and defense products [1][13]. - The company has a unique asset profile as a combined platform for manufacturing and development, which is rare in the industry [4][56]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 50.76 billion CNY, 75.29 billion CNY, and 98.72 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 50% [4][71]. - The company expects to achieve a gross margin improvement, with projections of 3.66%, 4.25%, and 4.52% for the same years [71]. Market Demand and Growth Drivers - The demand for trainer aircraft is expected to increase due to the modernization of military training systems and the growing emphasis on advanced training capabilities [3][39]. - Hongdu Aviation is positioned to benefit from the rising global demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and large aircraft, expanding its growth boundaries [48][53]. Investment Thesis - The report highlights the scarcity of Hongdu's asset attributes and its significant earnings elasticity, suggesting that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery of domestic equipment demand and the expansion of the military trade market [4][71]. - The anticipated increase in related transactions and procurement indicates a robust operational outlook for the company [2][61].