Milkground(600882) 华鑫证券·2025-01-27 11:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit of 0.90-1.30 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.87%-104.92%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be 0.38-0.53 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase of 429.90%-639.06% [5] - Cost improvements and consolidation of financials have positively impacted profits. The gross margin has increased due to lower raw material costs and effective cost control measures. The acquisition of 100% equity in Mengniu Cheese has also contributed to profit growth, adding approximately 8.4 million yuan to the net profit [6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the cheese market, focusing on expanding its ambient cheese stick product line and enhancing operational efficiency through the integration with Mengniu Cheese. Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.21, 0.38, and 0.48 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 84, 47, and 37 times [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a main revenue of 5.011 billion yuan for 2024, a growth rate of 23.8%. The net profit is expected to be 110 million yuan, with a growth rate of 73.2% [9] - The EPS is projected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.21 yuan in 2024, and further to 0.38 yuan in 2025 and 0.48 yuan in 2026 [11] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to rise from 29.2% in 2023 to 30.2% in 2024, and further to 31.0% in 2025 [12] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 2.0% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, reaching 4.6% in 2025 [12] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in the cheese sector, with a strategic focus on product innovation and market expansion [7]