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东鹏饮料2024年业绩预告点评:2024年圆满收官,2025年天高海阔

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 15.72-16.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%-43%. The Q4 revenue is projected to be 3.162-3.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.6%-35.1% [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.15-3.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54%-69%. For Q4, the net profit is expected to be 440-740 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%-93.4% [2][5]. - The company is focusing on a cost-effective product strategy, which has led to stable growth in sales of its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink. The electrolyte water segment is also experiencing high demand, with significant sales growth anticipated for the "Supplement Water" product line in 2024 [10]. - The company is expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, leveraging its product strength and competitive pricing to capture market share in regions with a strong demand for energy drinks [10]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 15.969 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 7.206 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 45% [14]. - The estimated net profit for 2024 is 3.301 billion yuan, with an EPS of 6.35 yuan, and the company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of approximately 20.7% [14]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 19.5 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.8% [14].