TKGF(601233) 德邦证券·2025-01-28 02:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply-demand inflection point has been reached, with inventory at a bottom level, indicating potential for profit elasticity in the upcoming peak seasons [4][6] - The long-term supply-demand landscape is expected to improve, with a significant slowdown in the growth rate of supply capacity, leading to increased industry concentration [6][51] - Tongkun maintains its leading position in the polyester filament market, with plans for extensive growth in refining operations [5][90] Summary by Sections 1. Steady Expansion in Core Business - Tongkun has evolved from a local chemical fiber factory established in 1981 to a leading global player in the chemical fiber industry, achieving significant growth in production capacity and revenue [14][15] - The company has expanded its polyester filament capacity from 4 million tons in 2015 to 13.5 million tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 16.4% [6][27] 2. Inventory at Bottom Level, Positive Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook - As of January 17, 2024, the inventory levels for POY, DTY, and FDY are at 5.8, 17.3, and 12.6 days respectively, indicating a significant reduction and positioning at historical low levels [6][38] - The supply growth rate for polyester filament is projected to decline from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026), enhancing the industry's long-term profitability [6][51] - Demand for polyester filament is expected to benefit from both domestic consumption and strong export performance, with a projected supply-demand gap of 230,000 tons in 2024 [6][89] 3. Leading Market Share in Polyester Filament, Broad Growth in Refining Layout - Tongkun holds the largest market share in polyester filament production in China, with a focus on upstream refining to secure core raw material supply [90][92] - The company has invested in Zhejiang Petrochemical, holding a 20% stake, which has contributed significantly to its cash flow and investment returns [90][92] - The Indonesian refining project is expected to enhance Tongkun's overall economic benefits and market competitiveness, with projected annual revenues of $7.402 billion upon completion [92][93] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Tongkun to be 1.215 billion, 1.805 billion, and 2.421 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 52.5%, 48.5%, and 34.2% [107] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.51, 0.75, and 1.01 yuan [107] - The report indicates that Tongkun is undervalued compared to its peers, with a lower PE ratio forecasted for the coming years [107][109]