微软：Cloud revenue growth and AI related monetization remain keys to watch

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Microsoft, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [26]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported 2QFY25 results with revenue of US$69.6 billion, up 12% YoY, and net profit of US$24.1 billion, up 10% YoY, both exceeding consensus estimates [1][2]. - The growth in cloud revenue, particularly from AI-related services, is a key focus, with Azure AI services revenue generation exceeding expectations [1][2]. - The target price is set at US$503.1, reflecting a slight increase from the previous target price of US$501.9, translating to a 32x FY26E PE [2][18]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth for the Intelligent Cloud (IC) segment was 19% YoY, contributing significantly to overall revenue, while Azure and other cloud services saw a 31% YoY increase [1][9]. - The Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) segment reported revenue of US$29.4 billion, up 14% YoY, with operating profit margin expanding to 57.4% [1][9]. - Capital expenditures for 2QFY25 were US$22.6 billion, a 97% increase YoY, indicating strong investment to meet demand [1][9]. Forecast and Valuation Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for FY25E were slightly revised down by 1.7% and 2.4% respectively, due to adjustments in cloud revenue growth expectations [16][17]. - The overall operating profit margin is expected to improve, with projections of 44.9% for FY25E [16][17]. - The report highlights a strong outlook for AI-related monetization as a critical driver for stock price in the next 6-12 months [1][2].