海大集团：海大鱼大系列报告一：冬天里的成长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Da Group, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - Hai Da Group has faced significant challenges over the past two decades, yet its feed sales have increased nearly 15 times from 2009 to 2024, making it the largest feed producer in China and the world [5][34]. - The company has demonstrated resilience through various market cycles, with a historical record of 13 out of 16 years of stock price increases since its IPO [5][34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Hai Da's integrated value chain, which includes seed, feed, animal health, and services, positioning it well for future growth [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of January 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 49.66 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 82.62 billion CNY [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2024 is 115.79 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.28%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 4.40 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 60.44% compared to 2023 [7][8]. - The report forecasts net profits of 4.4 billion CNY in 2024, 4.7 billion CNY in 2025, and 5.5 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 15 [9][11]. Industry Overview - The feed industry is characterized by a long cycle and significant opportunities for efficiency improvements, with a market size of over 1 trillion CNY [6][19]. - The report notes that the industry has entered a low-growth phase, with increasing concentration among leading firms, indicating a shift towards oligopolistic competition [23][28]. Company Development - Hai Da Group has transformed significantly since facing homogenization challenges in 2013, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 17% in feed sales from 2013 to 2023, outpacing the industry average [6][34]. - The company has successfully navigated various crises, enhancing its operational resilience and competitive advantages [34][37]. Competitive Advantages - The report highlights Hai Da's strong R&D capabilities and its ability to adapt to market changes, which have been crucial for maintaining its leadership position in the feed industry [6][11]. - The company's strategic focus on niche markets, particularly in aquaculture, has allowed it to capture significant market share in specialized feed products [40].