凯莱英：新签订单延续良好态势，股权激励彰显发展信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 54% to 63%. However, a quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 35% is anticipated in the fourth quarter [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be between 5.8 billion and 6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23% to 25%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 20% in the fourth quarter [1] - The company has launched a stock incentive plan, indicating confidence in long-term development, with a total of 521.6 million shares for A-shares and 148.5 million shares for H-shares [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects a net profit of 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 55.8% in 2024, followed by growth rates of 22.1% in 2025 and 29.3% in 2026 [4] - Revenue is projected to decline by 24.6% in 2024, but is expected to grow by 17% in 2025 and 17.2% in 2026 [5] Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO business is expected to grow by approximately 11% year-on-year, while emerging businesses are projected to grow by about 3% [2] - The large molecule business has shown positive trends, with fourth-quarter revenue accounting for over 45% of the annual total [2] Incentive Plans - The A-share incentive plan targets 649 individuals, including directors and key personnel, with a stock grant of 521.6 million shares, representing 1.53% of the total A-share capital [3] - The incentive plan aims for revenue growth targets of 10-13% in 2025, 20-27% in 2026, and up to 53% in 2028 based on 2024 revenue [3] Market Outlook - The company is focusing on accelerating overseas capacity expansion, rebalancing profitability, and enhancing new business development [4] - The overall order intake has increased by approximately 20% year-on-year, with strong growth from clients in Europe and the US [2]