HAIDILAO(06862) 国信证券·2025-02-04 08:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that Haidilao has successfully navigated through operational challenges and has returned to profitability, achieving record revenue and profit in 2023, reaffirming its position as a leader in the Chinese dining sector [5][7][9] - The report discusses the ongoing growth potential of Haidilao's hot pot business and the strategic introduction of new brands under the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to enhance revenue streams [5][8][9] Summary by Sections 01 Hot Pot Market: The Largest Segment in Chinese Cuisine - The hot pot market is projected to exceed 590 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 7.2% from 2024 to 2028 [6][14] - Sichuan and Chongqing hot pot dominate the market, accounting for over 66% of the segment's revenue in 2023 [6][14] - The competitive landscape has seen a significant reshuffle, with a stabilization in store openings and closures expected in 2024 [15][17] 02 Haidilao: Organizational Evolution and Resurgence - From 2015 to 2023, Haidilao's revenue grew at a CAGR of 28%, with net profit growing at 42%, reaching 41.5 billion yuan in 2023 [7][36] - The company has implemented significant organizational changes through the "Woodpecker Plan" and "Hard Bone Plan" to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market conditions [40][45] 03 Growth Outlook: Improvement in Same-Store Sales and Expansion of New Brands - Same-store sales are expected to improve, with projected table turnover rates increasing from 4.0 times per day to 4.3 times by 2026 [8] - The company plans to expand its hot pot outlets to a target of 1,902 to 1,998 stores over the next five years, with an annual net increase of approximately 65 stores [8] - The new brand "Yanjing Barbecue" is set to accelerate its development, with expectations of opening 50 to 80 new locations annually from 2025 to 2027 [8] 04 Investment Recommendations: A Turning Point for Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 45.1 billion yuan, 50.5 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [9] - The target price for Haidilao is set at a PE ratio of 16-18x for 2025, translating to a market value of 878 to 987 billion yuan, representing a potential upside of 12.4% to 26.4% from the latest closing price [9]