SAIC MOTOR(600104) 东方证券·2025-02-05 00:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 2025 PE average valuation of 20 times [2][5]. Core Views - The company achieved positive growth in overall sales in January, with retail sales outperforming wholesale sales. The total wholesale sales reached 264,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, while terminal sales were 353,000 units, exceeding wholesale sales by nearly 90,000 units [1][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from national reforms, with a focus on accelerating the layout of new energy vehicles in 2025. The company plans to launch multiple new energy models, which are anticipated to stabilize and increase sales of its self-owned brands [8]. Financial Forecast and Key Metrics - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively. The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is 611,672 million CNY, 674,246 million CNY, and 721,878 million CNY, with respective growth rates of -15.8%, 10.2%, and 7.1% [2][4]. - The company's operating profit is expected to decline significantly in 2024 to 2,577 million CNY, followed by a substantial recovery in 2025 to 20,402 million CNY, and further growth to 22,102 million CNY in 2026 [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.6% in 2024 to 11.0% in 2026, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 1.9% by 2026 [4]. Sales Performance - In January, the company's self-owned brand terminal sales reached 206,000 units, an increase of approximately 6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [8]. - The company’s overseas and export sales in January increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with terminal sales reaching 90,000 units, also showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [8].