柳工：24年利润高增，受益内需周期上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.58 to 14.75 billion for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between RMB 10.66 to 12.83 billion, reflecting a growth of 88% to 126% [1]. - The company has outlined a revenue target of RMB 346 billion for 2025, with an anticipated increase in sales profit margin by over 1 percentage point. The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 348 billion and a net profit of RMB 22.3 billion in 2025, continuing its high growth trajectory [2]. - The domestic excavator market is recovering, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the upward cycle in the domestic earth-moving machinery sector, with its earth-moving machinery segment accounting for 61.88% of its revenue in the first half of 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be RMB 298.75 billion in 2024, RMB 348.33 billion in 2025, and RMB 404.30 billion in 2026. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 13.90 billion in 2024, RMB 22.97 billion in 2025, and RMB 27.63 billion in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 10, and 8 times respectively [4]. Business Analysis - The company has shown significant quarterly growth in net profit, with year-on-year increases of 99.2%, 212.59%, 58.03%, 62.48%, and 58.74% for the quarters from Q3 2023 to Q3 2024. This trend indicates strong operational performance and market demand [2]. Market Position - The company is actively repurchasing shares to support employee stock ownership plans, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth prospects. The second phase of the share repurchase plan involves an investment of between RMB 3 billion and RMB 6 billion [2].