YTCO(600066) 国盛证券·2025-02-05 02:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion to 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 110% to 135% [1]. - The domestic demand for buses is recovering, and the company benefits from the "Two New" policy, which increases subsidies for new energy buses [1]. - The overseas market shows significant potential, with a notable increase in exports, particularly in the new energy segment [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yutong Bus is projected to sell 46,900 buses, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, with domestic and export sales growing by 24.9% and 37.7% respectively [2]. - The expected revenue for 2024 is 37.064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 37.1% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 3.971 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 118.5% year-on-year [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market for buses is expected to benefit from the recovery in tourism and the replacement of old vehicles [2]. - The overseas bus market demand exceeded 220,000 units in 2023, with significant growth in regions such as the CIS, Middle East, Africa, Americas, and Southeast Asia [2]. - The company has successfully penetrated high-end markets in Europe, achieving a market share of 17.5% in new energy bus exports, a year-on-year increase of over 5 percentage points [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4 billion, 4.5 billion, and 5.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [3]. - The report indicates that the company's profitability is approaching historical highs, with a forecasted EPS of 1.79 yuan for 2024 [4].