ORG Technology(002701) Changjiang Securities·2025-02-05 02:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company has a solid profit base from three-piece cans and is expected to achieve a β+α resonance after acquiring COFCO Packaging, which will enhance its profitability and market position [2][4] - The acquisition of COFCO Packaging is projected to increase consolidated profits and create scale effects, while the two-piece can segment is expected to recover from its current challenges [4][5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of its core client, China Red Bull, which is expected to maintain steady growth, ensuring a stable profit base [4][19] Summary by Sections Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of COFCO Packaging, with a current holding of 98.59%, is expected to enhance the company's profit margins and market share in the two-piece can segment, increasing the CR2 from 43% to 62% [2][4][31] - The combined production capacity for two-piece cans will reach 27.5 billion cans, capturing nearly 40% of the market share, which is anticipated to provide significant profit elasticity [4][35] Market Dynamics - The demand for two-piece cans is projected to grow due to increased canning rates, with a potential increase of 8 billion cans for every 1% rise in canning rates [5][39] - The company is expected to recover its two-piece can profit margins, which are currently low, with projections indicating a gradual return to single-digit net profit margins by 2024 [4][6] Growth Opportunities - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where demand for two-piece cans is expected to be higher than in China [7][33] - Innovation and diversification into new product lines, such as sports drinks and craft beers, are part of the company's strategy to create new demand and growth points [7][33]