从摩洛哥到全球，森麒麟破局之路

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Senqilin with a target price of 29.53 CNY per share, reflecting a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of 25.09 CNY [6][133]. Core Insights - Senqilin is positioned as a latecomer global tire brand, having transitioned from a foreign-funded company to a domestic one, and has been expanding its global footprint since 2014 with factories in Thailand, Spain, and Morocco [1][19]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product range, including all-steel, semi-steel, and specialty tires, and has established strong brand recognition internationally with brands like "Landsail," "Delinte," and "Senqilin" [19][28]. - The "833Plus" strategy aims to establish 8 digital tire manufacturing bases, 3 global R&D centers, and 3 user experience centers over the next decade, with plans for strategic acquisitions [19][35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Senqilin Tire Co., Ltd. focuses on high-quality, high-performance tires and has a diverse product line catering to passenger cars, light trucks, heavy trucks, and specialty tires [18][19]. - The company has maintained a strong growth trajectory since 2017, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% in revenue since its IPO in 2020 [19][39]. Mid-term Logic - Global Expansion - The tire market is characterized by a split between a "seller's market" in Europe and America and a "buyer's market" in Asia, with tariffs influencing trade flows [2][56]. - Senqilin's overseas factories in Thailand, Spain, and Morocco are crucial for navigating tariff challenges and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [2][88]. Short-term Logic - Cyclical Factors - Raw material prices are the primary factor affecting profitability, while shipping costs have a limited direct impact on tire companies [3][90]. - Senqilin's factories in Morocco and Spain currently face no tariff risks, positioning the company favorably in the market [3][91]. Long-term Logic - Brand Development - The establishment of the Moroccan factory is expected to facilitate entry into the global automotive supply chain, enhancing brand strength through local partnerships [4][124]. - Senqilin has become a qualified supplier for major automotive manufacturers, including Renault and Stellantis, which are expanding their production in Morocco [4][128]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.26 billion CNY, 2.55 billion CNY, and 3.08 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][131]. - A price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 is applied for valuation, reflecting a premium due to the company's strategic global positioning [4][133].