Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [5][212]. Core Insights - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a market size nearing 600 billion, and a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in 2023. The high-end segment accounts for nearly 30% of the market, with expectations for stable growth in skincare and makeup demand [19][20]. - The company, MAOGEPING, is positioned as a leading high-end domestic beauty brand, with significant revenue growth and a unique brand identity that combines light and shadow aesthetics with Eastern beauty principles [2][8]. - The company has a strong online and offline channel strategy, with online revenue growth of 69.9% in 2023 and 63.4% in the first half of 2024, while offline channels remain crucial for customer loyalty and brand experience [3][131]. Summary by Sections 1. Beauty Industry Overview - The beauty industry is in a phase of steady growth, with high-end products gaining market share. The high-end beauty market reached 471 billion for color cosmetics and 1471 billion for skincare in 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 5.8% respectively [19][20]. - Online channels have been the primary source of growth, but offline channels are expected to maintain their importance due to the experiential nature of beauty products [28][29]. 2. Company Overview - MAOGEPING, led by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, is the only Chinese company in the top 10 high-end beauty market. The company reported revenues of 28.9 billion and 19.7 billion for 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.8% and 41.0% [2][8]. - The brand's unique positioning and strong product lines in both color cosmetics and skincare are expected to drive further growth [2][8]. 3. Brand and Product Development - The company has a comprehensive product matrix with 387 SKUs, focusing on both color cosmetics and skincare. The integration of these two categories enhances customer loyalty and brand strength [107][111]. - The brand's pricing strategy effectively captures both premium and budget-conscious consumers, filling a gap in the high-end domestic beauty market [111][117]. 4. Channel Strategy - The company has established a robust offline presence with 372 direct-operated counters and a growing online presence through platforms like Tmall and Douyin. The online channel is expected to continue its rapid growth, with significant potential for customer base expansion [130][131]. - The offline channel remains critical for customer engagement, providing a unique shopping experience that online platforms cannot fully replicate [29][30]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 40.5 billion, 54.9 billion, and 70.5 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 35.3%, and 28.5% [198][212]. - The company is expected to maintain high profitability, with gross margins projected to be around 84.6% to 85.2% over the same period [204][205]. 6. Investment Recommendation - Given the company's unique brand positioning, strong growth potential, and the expected performance of its stock, the report recommends an "Accumulate" rating, with a target price of 77.08 HKD by 2025 [212].
毛戈平：品牌力和渠道力双重奏下的高端国货美妆典范