润本股份：差异化定位“小品类”，优质国货品牌乘风破浪

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned in the differentiated mosquito repellent and baby care market, focusing on high-quality domestic brands. It has established a comprehensive product matrix that includes mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oil products [6][10] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.76% from 2020 to 2023, and a significant increase in net profit [22] - The report forecasts continued growth in revenue and profit, with expected revenues of 13.41 billion yuan in 2024, 17.05 billion yuan in 2025, and 21.33 billion yuan in 2026 [87] Company Overview - The company, "Runben," was founded in 2006 and listed on the main board in 2023. It focuses on the research, production, and sales of personal care and mosquito repellent products [6][10] - The company operates two major production bases in Guangzhou Huangpu and Zhejiang Yiwu, continuously expanding its product matrix to meet consumer needs [6][10] Industry Analysis - The mosquito repellent market is projected to reach 10.17 billion yuan by 2027, driven by diverse consumer needs and technological advancements [30] - The baby care market is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2027, benefiting from the rise of refined parenting concepts and the rapid expansion of online sales channels [43][44] - The essential oil market is in its early development stage, with significant growth potential as consumer demand for natural and healthy products increases [50][51] Competitive Analysis - The company has established a strong market presence in the mosquito repellent sector, with a market share of approximately 5% overall and about 19.9% in the online market [52] - The brand has received recognition as a leading brand in the baby care segment, with a market share of 1.9% overall and 4.2% online [52] - The company's strategy of focusing on small product categories under a strong brand has created a competitive advantage [55] Financial Performance - The company has experienced a steady increase in gross margin, which rose from 52.53% in 2020 to 56.35% in 2023, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [77] - The net profit margin has remained stable around 22%, with a slight increase in recent quarters [77] Revenue Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth across its main product lines, with mosquito repellent products expected to generate 4.25 billion yuan in 2024, 5.54 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.97 billion yuan in 2026 [83] - The baby care segment is projected to achieve revenues of 7.12 billion yuan in 2024, 9.28 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.9 billion yuan in 2026 [85] Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a target price of 27.3 to 31.85 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30-35 for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the company's strong growth potential and market positioning [87]