LIUGONG(000528) 东吴证券·2025-02-06 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q4 profit fell short of expectations primarily due to accelerated impairment provisions and rising expenses. The forecast for 2024 indicates a net profit of 1.26 to 1.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70%, with a median estimate of 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting a 58% increase [8] - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, driven by improved domestic and international sales in earthmoving machinery, supported by infrastructure projects and a recovery in the construction sector. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is approximately 34.64 billion yuan, with a net profit margin exceeding 6%, leading to a profit of 2.08 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of over 50% compared to 2024 [8] - The company has initiated a second share buyback program to support long-term stock prices and ensure sustainable performance, with a total buyback amount between 300 million and 600 million yuan [8] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to increase from 27.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 30.63 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 34.64 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.29% in 2024 and 13.11% in 2025 [1][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 867.81 million yuan in 2023 to 1.37 billion yuan in 2024, and to 2.07 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 58.08% and 51.01% respectively [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.68 yuan in 2024 and 1.03 yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.16 and 11.36 [1][9] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 10.65 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 21.50 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.21 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.49% [6][5] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on reducing risks in its concrete machinery business and is in the promotion phase for its agricultural machinery, which may involve some inventory and bad debt risk provisions [8] - Increased R&D investments in large-scale products and electrification are expected to enhance future product offerings [8]