凯立新材：《水俣公约》带来PVC行业无汞催化剂大市场

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The Minamata Convention has created a significant market for mercury-free catalysts in the PVC industry, with China being one of the first signatories and actively complying with the convention's requirements [1][2][3] - The demand for mercury-free catalysts in China is expected to exceed 10,000 tons, with a potential market size of approximately 2.028 billion yuan over the next five years [4][5] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 105.23 million yuan, 182.30 million yuan, and 244.49 million yuan respectively, reflecting a stable competitive landscape in the mercury-free catalyst industry [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Minamata Convention Background and Progress - The Minamata Convention, effective since August 16, 2017, aims to control mercury emissions and has over 140 signatory countries [1][2][3] - The convention includes measures to ban new mercury mines and gradually eliminate the use of mercury in various products and processes [2][3][4] 2. Mercury-Free PVC Industry - The PVC industry in China, which relies heavily on mercury-containing catalysts, is undergoing a transition to mercury-free production methods to comply with the Minamata Convention [3][4] - The electric acetylene method, which accounts for about 75% of PVC production in China, is expected to shift towards mercury-free technologies [3][4] 3. Demand for Mercury-Free Catalysts - The annual demand for mercury-free catalysts in the PVC production process is projected to be around 10,000 tons, with a total replacement market estimated at 2.028 billion yuan [4][5] - The competitive landscape for mercury-free catalysts is stable, with only a few companies, including the report's subject company, actively participating in the market [4][5] 4. Financial Data and Forecasts - The company's revenue for 2022 was 1,882.20 million yuan, with a projected decline in 2023 to 1,785.30 million yuan, followed by a recovery in 2024 [5] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 105.23 million yuan, 182.30 million yuan, and 244.49 million yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4][5]