苏农银行：24年信贷预计平稳，不良稳中改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Su Nong Bank with a target price of RMB 6.38 [9][11]. Core Views - Su Nong Bank's 2024 revenue and net profit are expected to grow by 3.0% and 10.5% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a stable performance despite slight declines in growth rates compared to previous quarters [1]. - The bank's asset quality is stable, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, and a clear development strategy with significant urban expansion potential [1][5]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in credit demand driven by a package of policies aimed at economic recovery [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of the end of 2024, Su Nong Bank's total assets, loans, and deposits are projected to increase by 5.3%, 5.8%, and 8.0% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to slightly decline to 11.30% in 2024, with fluctuations in quarterly profits [4]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio is projected to be 0.76% at the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 389%, indicating solid risk mitigation capabilities [3]. - The proportion of special mention loans has increased to 1.23%, reflecting ongoing retail risks [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be RMB 1.926 billion, RMB 2.118 billion, and RMB 2.353 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 10.0%, and 11.0% [5]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.60 for 2025, reflecting the bank's growth potential and strategic clarity [5].