QILU BANK(601665) 长江证券·2025-02-07 05:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qilu Bank [1][5]. Core Views - Qilu Bank has consistently ranked among the top tier of listed banks in terms of growth rate, indicating sustainable growth potential as a city commercial bank. The bank's expansion of branches, increased market share in local lending, steady performance growth, and continuous improvement in asset quality form a clear operational logic [3][8]. - The bank's dividend payout ratio has increased to 27.6% for the first half of 2024, with an expected annual dividend yield of 4.6%. Revenue growth is projected at 4.5% year-on-year for 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 11.5% year-on-year [3][8]. - The current valuation stands at 0.64 times the 2025 price-to-book ratio (PB) and 5.4 times the 2025 price-to-earnings ratio (PE), with the current stock price approximately 15% away from the mandatory redemption price of convertible bonds [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Qilu Bank reported a revenue growth of 4.6% year-on-year for 2024, with a quarterly growth of 5.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.8% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth of 19.1%. The non-performing loan ratio decreased significantly by 4 basis points to 1.19%, with an annual decline of 7 basis points. The provision coverage ratio rose by 9.6 percentage points to 322% [3][4][8]. Loan Growth and Market Position - By the end of 2024, Qilu Bank's loans increased by 12.3% compared to the beginning of the year, with a quarterly growth of 1.4%. The expansion of branches in Heze and Zibo is expected to enhance the bank's market share in external loans. The bank's focus on corporate loans remains strong, with inclusive small and micro loans maintaining a 22% share [3][8]. Revenue and Profitability - The bank's net interest income was impacted by a significant decline in net interest margin, which fell by 2.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q4 2023, leading to positive growth in net interest income. Non-interest income is expected to benefit from strong performance in the bond market [3][8]. Asset Quality - Qilu Bank has seen a continuous decline in non-performing loans and attention rates, achieving record lows since its listing. The bank's exposure to real estate loans is minimal, with only 1.34% of corporate loans allocated to this sector, indicating a lower risk profile compared to the industry [3][8].