Tesla(TSLA) 第一上海证券·2025-02-07 07:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla with a target price of $480.00, representing a potential upside of 26.93% from the current price of $378.17 [2][4][35]. Core Insights - Tesla is expected to accelerate the training of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with significant improvements anticipated in 2025, which could lead to a recovery in automotive business growth [30][34]. - The company has achieved record deployment in its energy storage business, with a 243% year-over-year increase in Powerwall and Megapack systems [7][34]. - The report forecasts Tesla's vehicle deliveries to reach 2.3 million, 2.9 million, and 3.7 million units over the next three years, with corresponding revenue projections of $126.7 billion, $164.4 billion, and $263.3 billion [35]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, Tesla reported total revenue of $96.77 billion, with a projected increase to $126.72 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 29.72% [3][37]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was $10.88 billion, expected to rise to $16.56 billion in 2025, indicating a significant growth of 93.17% [3][37]. - The automotive gross margin decreased to 16.6% in Q4, primarily due to price reductions and increased costs associated with the new Model Y [4][15]. Delivery and Production Performance - In Q4, Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles, a 2% increase year-over-year, while production reached 459,445 units, a 9% increase [9][27]. - The company plans to introduce a new version of the Model Y and expects the production capacity of the 4680 battery to exceed 2,500 Cybertrucks per week by 2025 [27][34]. Energy Business Growth - Tesla's energy generation and storage revenue reached $3.06 billion in Q4, a 113% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 25.2% [7][34]. - The company is expanding its energy storage capacity with plans for a third factory to meet growing demand [7][34]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for Tesla's Robotaxi service to launch in Texas by mid-2025, with plans for expansion to other cities [34]. - Tesla aims to produce 10,000 units of its Optimus robot by the end of 2025, with a focus on internal factory applications [33][34].