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特斯拉:预计低价车型支撑销量增长,关注2025-27年新产品落地情况和盈利潜力
TSLATesla(TSLA) 华兴证券·2025-02-07 10:27

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla (TSLA US) with a target price of 429.00,indicatingapotentialupsideof15429.00, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of 374.32 [1][8][11]. Core Insights - Tesla's sales are expected to recover due to the introduction of new low-cost models, despite current challenges with Model 3 and Model Y sales [6][11]. - The company is anticipated to see significant advancements in its Optimus, FSD, and Robotaxi businesses by 2025, which could support its valuation [7][11]. - The target price has been raised from 270.00to270.00 to 429.00, reflecting a positive outlook on Tesla's operational improvements and market position [2][8][11]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is 103.07billion,withanetprofitof103.07 billion, with a net profit of 7.65 billion and an EPS of 2.55[10][13].Theexpectedgrossmarginfor2025is17.42.55 [10][13]. - The expected gross margin for 2025 is 17.4%, with a gradual increase to 19.9% by 2027 [10][13]. - The report highlights a decrease in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, down by 28% and 23% respectively, due to anticipated sales pressures [2][14]. Market Comparison - Tesla's revenue forecast for 2025 is 103.07 billion, which is 12% lower than previous estimates, while the EPS is also adjusted downwards [5][13]. - The report compares Tesla's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a P/E ratio of 146.6 for 2025, which reflects the market's high expectations for growth [17][21]. Product and Business Development - The introduction of the new low-cost Model 2 is expected to boost Tesla's delivery numbers significantly in 2025, with projected deliveries of 1.92 million vehicles [6][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, which are seen as key growth areas for the company [7][11].