wanhua(600309) 国信证券·2025-02-08 05:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][16] Core Views - The global MDI manufacturers have raised prices due to rising raw material, energy, and logistics costs, which supports the industry's upward trend [2][3][4] - Demand is bolstered by policies promoting home renovation and automotive upgrades, indicating strong support for the MDI market [3][9] - Wanhua Chemical is a leading player in the polyurethane industry, with stable profit guarantees and ongoing project advancements [3][16] Summary by Sections Price Adjustments - Major polyurethane companies have increased MDI and TDI prices across various regions, with Wanhua Chemical raising prices by $200/ton in the ASEAN region [2][4] - MDI market prices have increased since the beginning of the year, with prices for polymer MDI and pure MDI reaching 18,875 and 19,550 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 750 and 1,150 CNY/ton [2][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side benefits from policies supporting home appliance upgrades and automotive replacements, with significant production increases in refrigerators and freezers [9] - The MDI market is experiencing strong export levels, with polymer MDI exports reaching 100,500 tons in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 87% [5][9] Capacity Expansion - Wanhua Chemical is set to contribute significantly to global MDI capacity expansion, with plans to add 130,000 tons of new capacity [12][13] - The company has multiple ongoing projects, including a 600,000-ton MDI capacity expansion project expected to be completed in 2025 [12][16] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Wanhua Chemical from 2024 to 2026 are 14.708 billion, 17.272 billion, and 18.944 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.68, 5.50, and 6.03 CNY [3][16] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14.7, 12.5, and 11.4 for the years 2024 to 2026 [16]