SMIC(688981) 天风证券·2025-02-08 13:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 133.59 CNY, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to outperform market expectations due to strong AI demand and the effects of order transfers, particularly benefiting from the domestic AI wave and advanced process manufacturing capabilities [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will reach 56.72 billion CNY in 2024, 65.70 billion CNY in 2025, and 73.52 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit projections of 4.02 billion CNY, 5.96 billion CNY, and 7.30 billion CNY respectively [5][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is positioned as a leading domestic foundry capable of mass-producing advanced processes, which is expected to provide a high bargaining power in the market [2][4]. Market Trends - The global data center capital expenditure is projected to significantly increase, with major companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft planning substantial investments, which will benefit the company [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 25.34% for 2024, 15.83% for 2025, and 11.92% for 2026, with EBITDA expected to rise from 26.70 billion CNY in 2024 to 41.61 billion CNY in 2026 [5][12]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve, with net profit expected to grow by 48.40% in 2025 and 22.37% in 2026 [5][12]. Strategic Positioning - The new U.S. semiconductor policies are expected to create a favorable environment for local production, leading to increased order transfers back to the company, enhancing its operational performance [4][5].