XWXN(688778) 兴业证券·2025-02-09 23:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the new energy materials sector, with a strong focus on lithium battery cathode materials and a robust product portfolio that includes lithium cobalt oxide, ternary materials, and hydrogen storage alloys. The company has maintained its market leadership with the highest global market share in lithium cobalt oxide and has seen a recovery in profitability with a 13% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q4 2024 after seven consecutive quarters of decline [3][10][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 688778), is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has a stable shareholding structure with Xiamen Tungsten as the controlling shareholder. The company has a comprehensive supply chain and a strong focus on R&D, holding over 100 patents [10][16]. New Cathode Materials - The NL cathode material is positioned to lead a revolution in lithium battery technology, offering significant advantages in energy density, fast charging, and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional materials. The company expects to begin small-scale shipments of NL materials in 2024, with a projected demand of 0.38 million tons by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate of 634% from 2024 to 2027 [3][34][40]. Lithium Cobalt Oxide Leadership - The demand for lithium cobalt oxide is anticipated to surge in 2025 due to the increasing battery capacity requirements driven by AI and foldable smartphones. The company has maintained its leading market share and is well-positioned to benefit from this demand growth [3][10][34]. Ternary Materials - The company is a leader in high-nickel ternary materials, with a 37.32% increase in shipments despite a 1.5% decline in global ternary production in 2024. The company is focusing on high-power differentiated products to capture new revenue streams in the automotive battery market [3][10][34]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.97 billion, 8.11 billion, and 10.52 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The price-to-earnings ratios corresponding to these profits are 36.6, 22.5, and 17.3 [3][10][34].