CBC(600132) 天风证券·2025-02-10 00:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to generate a total revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.245 billion yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.582 billion yuan, a decline of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 87 million yuan, indicating a significant increase in losses compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The beer industry is facing challenges due to changes in consumption habits and scenarios, particularly in dining and entertainment channels, leading to a decline in sales volume [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 2.975 million kiloliters, a decrease of 0.75% year-on-year, with a slight decline in revenue per ton by 0.4% [2]. - The company's net profit margin and operating profit margin are expected to decrease by 0.5 and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, indicating reduced scale effects due to declining sales [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to continue its "Sailing 27" strategy, focusing on expanding its market share through a diversified brand portfolio and high-end strategy, while also enhancing non-dining channel development and increasing canning rates [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in dining and nightlife consumption scenarios with the introduction of consumption promotion policies [3]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, 14.749 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.168 billion yuan in 2026; net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.245 billion yuan in 2024, 1.280 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.351 billion yuan in 2026 [3][5].