亚马逊：Robust earnings growth, pace of margin expansion likely to slow in 2025

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Amazon, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [23]. Core Insights - Amazon's 4Q24 results showed revenue of US$187.8 billion, a 10$21.2 billion, up 61% year-over-year, driven by margin improvements in both North America and AWS segments [1][6]. - For 2025, revenue is projected to grow to between US$151.0 billion and US$155.5 billion, implying a 5-9% year-over-year growth, while operating profit is expected to be between US$14.0 billion and US$18.0 billion [1][6]. - The target price for Amazon has been raised by 14% to US$268.0, based on an 18.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, which aligns with the two-year trading average [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, total revenue reached US$638.0 billion, with a net profit of US$59.2 billion, reflecting a 95$702.6 billion, with a net profit of US$71.2 billion, representing a 20.2$83.8 billion, up 22% year-over-year, despite a negative impact of US$400 million from accounting changes [7][12]. Segment Performance - AWS revenue for 4Q24 was US$28.8 billion, up 18.9% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 36.9% [6][10]. - The North America segment reported revenue of US$115.6 billion, a 9.5$17.3 billion, contributing 9.2% to total revenue in 4Q24 [6][10]. Valuation and Forecast Changes - The valuation period has been rolled over to 2025E, with updated forecasts reflecting a slight decrease in revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 by 0.4% [12][13]. - The gross profit margin for FY25 is expected to be 50.0%, with an operating profit margin of 11.9% [12][13].