亚马逊：Q4利润表现出色，25Q1云指引受供应紧缺限制，继续加大AI投入

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q4 profit performance was strong, with Q4 2024 revenue at $187.8 billion (up 10% year-over-year), exceeding guidance of 7%-11%. Operating profit reached $21.2 billion (up 61% year-over-year), surpassing the upper limit of guidance [1][11] - The retail segment continues to focus on low prices and improving fulfillment efficiency, with North America revenue at $115.6 billion (up 10% year-over-year) and international revenue at $43.4 billion (up 8% year-over-year) [1][8] - The cloud and AI segments show strong demand, although supply constraints are expected to ease in the second half of 2025. AWS revenue grew 19% year-over-year, but is currently limited by supply chain issues [2][9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q4 2024 revenue was $187.8 billion (up 10% year-over-year), operating profit was $21.2 billion (up 61% year-over-year), and net profit was $20 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [1][11] - North America revenue was $115.6 billion (up 10% year-over-year) with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 8% [1][18] - AWS revenue was $28.8 billion (up 19% year-over-year) with an OPM of 37% [9][18] Capital Expenditure - Q4 2024 capital expenditure was $26.3 billion (up 95% year-over-year), driven by AI investments. The company expects 2025 capital expenditure to exceed $100 billion [2][10][23] Earnings Guidance - For Q1 2025, the company expects revenue between $151 billion and $155.5 billion (up 5%-9% year-over-year) and operating profit between $14 billion and $18 billion [2][23] - Full-year revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted to $695.4 billion and $764.9 billion, respectively, while profit forecasts have been raised to $68.3 billion and $82.6 billion [3][4] AI and Cloud Strategy - The company is making significant investments in AI across various layers, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [24][26] - The introduction of new chips and services is expected to improve the profitability of AWS's AI offerings in the long term [26] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025 are $695.4 billion, with net profits expected to reach $68.3 billion [4][27] - The company anticipates a continued improvement in profit margins driven by retail and high-margin cloud services [3][9]