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亚马逊：Q4利润表现出色，25Q1云指引受供应紧缺限制，继续加大AI投入
AMZNAmazon(AMZN) 国信证券·2025-02-10 01:49

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q4 profit performance was strong, with Q4 2024 revenue at 187.8billion(up10187.8 billion (up 10% year-over-year), exceeding guidance of 7%-11%. Operating profit reached 21.2 billion (up 61% year-over-year), surpassing the upper limit of guidance [1][11] - The retail segment continues to focus on low prices and improving fulfillment efficiency, with North America revenue at 115.6billion(up10115.6 billion (up 10% year-over-year) and international revenue at 43.4 billion (up 8% year-over-year) [1][8] - The cloud and AI segments show strong demand, although supply constraints are expected to ease in the second half of 2025. AWS revenue grew 19% year-over-year, but is currently limited by supply chain issues [2][9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q4 2024 revenue was 187.8billion(up10187.8 billion (up 10% year-over-year), operating profit was 21.2 billion (up 61% year-over-year), and net profit was 20billion,exceedingBloomberg′sexpectations[1][11]−NorthAmericarevenuewas20 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [1][11] - North America revenue was 115.6 billion (up 10% year-over-year) with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 8% [1][18] - AWS revenue was 28.8billion(up1928.8 billion (up 19% year-over-year) with an OPM of 37% [9][18] Capital Expenditure - Q4 2024 capital expenditure was 26.3 billion (up 95% year-over-year), driven by AI investments. The company expects 2025 capital expenditure to exceed 100billion[2][10][23]EarningsGuidance−ForQ12025,thecompanyexpectsrevenuebetween100 billion [2][10][23] Earnings Guidance - For Q1 2025, the company expects revenue between 151 billion and 155.5billion(up5155.5 billion (up 5%-9% year-over-year) and operating profit between 14 billion and 18billion[2][23]−Full−yearrevenueforecastsfor2025and2026havebeenslightlyadjustedto18 billion [2][23] - Full-year revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted to 695.4 billion and 764.9billion,respectively,whileprofitforecastshavebeenraisedto764.9 billion, respectively, while profit forecasts have been raised to 68.3 billion and 82.6billion[3][4]AIandCloudStrategy−ThecompanyismakingsignificantinvestmentsinAIacrossvariouslayers,withafocusonenhancingefficiencyandreducingcosts[24][26]−TheintroductionofnewchipsandservicesisexpectedtoimprovetheprofitabilityofAWS′sAIofferingsinthelongterm[26]FinancialProjections−Projectedrevenuesfor2025are82.6 billion [3][4] AI and Cloud Strategy - The company is making significant investments in AI across various layers, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [24][26] - The introduction of new chips and services is expected to improve the profitability of AWS's AI offerings in the long term [26] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025 are 695.4 billion, with net profits expected to reach $68.3 billion [4][27] - The company anticipates a continued improvement in profit margins driven by retail and high-margin cloud services [3][9]