Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company, Maogeping, is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand in China, leveraging the unique IP of national makeup master Maogeping. The brand covers both makeup and skincare categories, with a broad potential customer base and a commitment to long-term brand strength enhancement. The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.88 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.29 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.5%, 30.3%, and 24.3% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 880 million, 1.17 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.3%, 32.6%, and 24.7% respectively [3][4][12]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected increase to 3.882 billion yuan in 2024, 5.060 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.291 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 57.78%, 34.52%, 30.33%, and 24.33% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 882 million yuan in 2024, 1.170 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.458 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 88.00%, 33.30%, 32.57%, and 24.66% respectively [4][5][12]. Business Model and Market Position - Maogeping's business model is unique, combining personal IP, a makeup school, and offline services. The company operates two major beauty brands, Maogeping and Ziai Zhongsheng, with a strong presence in both offline department stores and online platforms. The offline channel contributes significantly to revenue, with 372 self-operated counters nationwide, ranking second among all beauty brands in China [3][19][20]. Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care market in China is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with overall market growth slowing from a CAGR of 11% (2015-2019) to 3% (2019-2023). The skincare segment remains dominant, accounting for 51% of the market, while the makeup segment represents 11% [29][30]. The high-end beauty market is growing faster than the mass market, with a CAGR of 15% compared to 4% for mass products [22][24]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end cosmetics market is primarily dominated by international brands, which hold a significant market share. However, domestic brands like Maogeping are gradually increasing their presence, with the market share of leading domestic skincare brands rising from 6.5% in 2014 to 13.5% in 2023 [22][31]. The report highlights that brand strength and emotional connection are critical barriers to entry in this competitive landscape [29].
毛戈平深度报告：再论毛戈平商业模式与核心壁垒：个人IP+化妆学校+线下服务