华峰化学：行稳致远，越过山丘

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company specializes in spandex, polyurethane raw materials, and is a leader in China's polyurethane products industry. The spandex expansion wave is not over, while the adipic acid expansion wave has passed, indicating potential for improvement in the industry. The company has a leading cost advantage and is expected to enhance its performance as the main business recovers and expands horizontally and vertically [2][8]. Company Overview - The company is a leader in the polyurethane products industry, focusing on spandex, polyurethane raw materials, and adipic acid. It has a spandex production capacity of 325,000 tons per year, ranking second globally and first in China, with an additional 150,000 tons under construction. The company also has an adipic acid capacity of 1,355,000 tons per year and a polyurethane raw material capacity of 520,000 tons per year, both ranking first globally [4][20]. Spandex Market Analysis - The demand for spandex has grown at a CAGR of 9.2% over the past decade, driven by the rapid growth of sportswear, leisurewear, and emerging medical applications. The industry is currently in the latter half of an expansion wave, with supply growth expected to remain around 10% in the next two years. The company has a significant cost advantage, allowing it to navigate through various spandex market cycles [5][54]. Adipic Acid Market Analysis - The expansion wave for adipic acid has passed, with a domestic apparent consumption of 1,768,000 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%. The supply growth is expected to decline significantly by 2025, which may lead to an improvement in industry conditions. The company holds a cost advantage due to its production processes and energy efficiency [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of its major shareholder's polyurethane resin and TPU assets, which is currently in due diligence. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness and expand its industry chain. Additionally, the company is extending its upstream raw material layout, which is anticipated to further solidify its cost advantage [7][8]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits attributable to the company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 2.29 billion, 3.37 billion, and 3.99 billion yuan, respectively [2][8].