Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential of the HNB market, with IQOS leading the market with over 70% share, indicating strong performance and industry growth [1] - The report anticipates a double-digit growth for IQOS sales in 2025, with a projected increase of 10-12% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 5%, 12%, and 17% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts showing a recovery in 2025 and 2026 [6] Summary by Sections HNB Market Growth - The HNB penetration rate in Japan is expected to reach 47.1% by December 2024, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The U.S. HNB market is set to open, with IQOS devices expected to be sold directly in Austin, Texas starting March 2025 [1] - The gross margin for smoke-free products increased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year to 66.6% in Q4 2024, outperforming traditional tobacco products [1] User Growth and Market Expansion - The number of IQOS users reached 32.2 million in 2024, with a conversion rate maintained at 72% [3] - The smoke-free product revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.78 billion, 15.44 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.70 billion, and $2.24 billion [6][13] - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio of 59.71X, 46.47X, and 35.42X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]
思摩尔国际点评报告：从菲莫年报感知HNB市场成长，看好业绩弹性