HEILAN HOME(600398) 华源证券·2025-02-13 02:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (initial coverage) [5][42] Core Views - The company's men's clothing business is stable, and its expansion into new sectors is expected to open up growth opportunities [5][42] - The company has a multi-brand operation model, which has shown stable profit growth, with an increasing gross margin trend in recent years [7][15] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online sales and direct sales channels, which are expected to drive revenue and profit growth [10][24] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - As of February 12, 2025, the closing price is 7.94 yuan, with a market capitalization of 38,134 million yuan [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 21,157 million yuan, 24,144 million yuan, and 26,331 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.72%, 14.12%, and 9.06% respectively [6][40] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2,298 million yuan, 2,690 million yuan, and 2,998 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -22.17%, 17.09%, and 11.45% respectively [6][40] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 12.92 for 2023, decreasing to 12.72 by 2026 [6][43] Investment Logic - The company has a solid foundation in the men's clothing sector, with expected revenue and profit growth driven by increased online and direct sales channel contributions [10][42] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and entering the sports retail and outlet channels, which are anticipated to inject new growth into its revenue [10][42] Key Assumptions - Sales expense ratios are expected to improve as business stabilizes, with projections of 20.90%, 20.80%, and 20.45% for 2024-2026 [9][40] - Management expense ratios are anticipated to decline due to digital management initiatives, with estimates of 4.90%, 4.80%, and 4.70% for the same period [9][40]