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好未来:业绩表现超预期,智能学习机业务快速增长。
TALTAL(TAL) 第一上海证券·2025-02-13 04:16

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 17.50,indicatingapotentialupsideof24.8017.50, indicating a potential upside of 24.80% from the current price [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated better-than-expected performance, particularly in its smart learning machine business, which is experiencing rapid growth [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 606 million for the third quarter of FY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.4%, surpassing market expectations of 39% [5]. - The smart learning machine sales reached 1.6billioninFY25Q3,markingan881.6 billion in FY25Q3, marking an 88% year-on-year growth, with a sales volume of 356,000 units, up 65% [5]. - The company is expanding its offline educational training points, with an estimated 430-450 locations, maintaining strong retention and utilization rates [5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for FY24 is projected at 1.49 billion, a 46.15% increase from the previous year, with a forecast of 2.19billionforFY25[3][5].NonGAAPnetprofitisexpectedtoturnpositiveinFY25,reaching2.19 billion for FY25 [3][5]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to turn positive in FY25, reaching 128.7 million, with further growth to 250.5millioninFY26and250.5 million in FY26 and 350.6 million in FY27 [3][5]. - The company maintains a strong cash position with $3.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, and no bank debt [5]. Business Growth - The company is focusing on enhancing its educational resources and management capabilities, particularly in the smart learning machine sector, which is expected to continue its rapid development [5]. - The introduction of the Xbook smart learning machine has received positive feedback from parents and is positioned to disrupt traditional learning machine manufacturers [5].