Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in atomization technology, primarily developing a diversified business model focused on B2B operations. In 2023, the company reported revenue of 111.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, with B2B and B2C business accounting for 83% and 17% of revenue, respectively [2][22]. - The tightening regulations on electronic cigarettes are expected to benefit compliant leaders in the industry, while the potential for heated non-combustion (HNB) products remains significant [3][43]. - The company is deeply integrated with major clients, and its HNB segment is anticipated to create a second growth curve, supported by high R&D investment and the launch of new products [8][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established in 2009, has evolved from an OEM for electronic cigarettes to a diversified business model, including heated non-combustion and special-purpose atomization products. It holds a 13.7% market share in the global electronic atomization device market as of 2023 [17][19]. - The business model is primarily B2B, with a significant focus on ODM manufacturing for electronic atomization products and components [20][22]. Industry Analysis - The global electronic cigarette market is projected to grow, with a market size of 21.2 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase. The market is expected to continue expanding, driven by regulatory changes and increased consumer awareness [43][44]. - The HNB market is also on the rise, with a global market size of 34.5 billion USD in 2023, showing a 12% increase from the previous year. The CAGR for the HNB market is expected to be 14% from 2023 to 2028 [58][59]. Financial Analysis - The company forecasts a recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 13.2 billion, 16.6 billion, and 22.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 60, 48, and 36 times [1][8]. - The company has experienced a decline in revenue from B2B operations, with a reported income of 93.2 billion yuan in 2023, down 13% year-on-year. However, the B2C segment has shown growth, with a 26% increase in revenue [22][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening regulations in the electronic cigarette market and the growth potential of its HNB business. The initial coverage suggests an "Accumulate" rating based on these factors [1][8].
思摩尔国际：全球雾化科技龙头迎政策拐点，布局加热不燃烧打造第二曲线-20250213