Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.60, based on the current price of HKD 17.62 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in footwear development and manufacturing, with over 30 years of experience in the footwear OEM industry, focusing on expanding product categories and developing high-quality clients [5][11]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of over 70% annually, except in 2020, and plans to distribute additional cash through share buybacks and special dividends [5][21]. - The company has successfully optimized its customer and product category mix, leading to improved operational efficiency and production capacity expansion [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a trusted partner for leading global brands, including Nike and Balenciaga, and has launched its own brand, Stella Luna [11][12]. - The management team possesses extensive industry experience, which aids in the company's sustained focus on business development [12]. 2. Customer and Product Optimization - The company has invested over USD 40 million annually in R&D since 2020, with a high R&D expenditure-to-revenue ratio of 2.68% in 2023, surpassing competitors [6][25]. - The revenue distribution among product categories has shifted, with fashion and sports products increasing their share, while casual products have decreased [29][34]. 3. Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced labor costs as a percentage of revenue, achieving a labor cost ratio of 9.8% in 2023, down from 11.5% in 2021 [7][43]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, reaching 25.8% in 2024H1, driven by better product mix and production efficiency [20][43]. 4. Market Demand and Competitive Landscape - Demand for footwear is stabilizing, with reduced inventory pressure observed in the U.S. apparel market since mid-2023 [44]. - The concentration of suppliers for major brands like Nike has increased, indicating a more favorable competitive landscape for companies with strong production capabilities [50]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are USD 16.2 billion, USD 17.6 billion, and USD 19.2 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of USD 1.7 billion, USD 1.9 billion, and USD 2.1 billion [8][52]. - The target market capitalization is set at USD 2.1 billion, with a target price of USD 2.52, reflecting a valuation based on a 11x PE ratio for 2025 [55].
九兴控股：客户和订单结构持续优化-20250213