LONCIN(SH:603766) Tianfeng Securities·2025-02-14 07:49Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Longxin General [6] Core Views - Longxin General is a leading motorcycle manufacturer in China, with its high-end self-owned brand "Wuji" showing rapid growth and expanding its product matrix [1][17] - The domestic market for large-displacement leisure motorcycles is accelerating, with a five-year CAGR of over 30% [2][43] - The overseas motorcycle market presents significant export opportunities, particularly in Latin America and Europe, where Longxin's competitive products are expected to gain market share [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Longxin General, established in 1993 and headquartered in Chongqing, ranks among the top two in domestic motorcycle production and sales, with a strong export performance [1][17] - The company has developed a diverse product range, including motorcycles from 50cc to 900cc, and has successfully launched popular models under the "Wuji" brand, achieving a sales revenue of 1.52 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 132% [1][19] Domestic Motorcycle Market - The domestic market for large-displacement leisure motorcycles has seen a significant rise since 2019, with sales of motorcycles over 250cc growing at a CAGR of 33.67% from 2019 to 2024 [2][47] - The penetration rates for large-displacement motorcycles in domestic sales and exports are expected to increase, reflecting a growing acceptance among consumers [2][47] Overseas Motorcycle Market - The global motorcycle market is estimated to have a capacity of approximately 54 million units, with significant growth potential for Chinese brands in international markets [3] - Longxin has established a strong presence in the Latin American market, with competitive advantages in countries like Brazil and Mexico, and is expanding its influence in Europe [3][4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Longxin General is projected to achieve net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.40 billion yuan, and 1.64 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 15, and 12 [4][5] - The report sets a target price of 11.55 yuan per share for 2025, based on a PE of 17 [4][5]