两轮车系列专题：政策发力叠加格局优化，行业高景气拐 点渐近 20251215 摘要 2025 年中大排摩托车内销增速放缓，预计全年与去年持平，但玩乐人 群扩容提升渗透率，头部企业如春风动力、隆鑫通用和钱江摩托受益， 市占率有望提升。 2025 年中国摩托车出口强劲，110cc 以上摩托车出口同比增长 24%，250cc 以上中大排量摩托车出口同比增长 60%，海外市场潜力 巨大，尤其是欧美市场。 中国摩托车品牌通过提升产品性能、智能化配置和供应链优势，逐步缩 小与日系品牌的差距，在欧洲市场市占率有所提升，但仍有较大增长空 间。 2025 年土耳其市场汇率波动对中国摩托车出口造成短期影响，但长期 来看，中国品牌在欧美、南美及东南亚等地的布局仍具成长空间。 2025 年电动两轮车行业受以旧换新政策驱动，但政策效果减弱，新国 标实施后，终端销售表现平淡，头部企业如雅迪、爱玛面临抢占市场份 额的机会。 Q&A 2025 年国内中大排摩托车市场表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，国内中大排摩托车销量表现相对稳健，主要由于 2024 年同 期基数较低，前五个月内销销量同比增长约 30%。然而，从 6 月份开始，由于 去年基数 ...

Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 003033 | 征和工业 | 68.48 | 10.01% | 2.49万 | 1.67亿 | | 603766 | 隆鑫通用 | 16.17 | 2.21% | 54.48万 | 8.67亿 | | 301322 | 绿通科技 | 26.87 | 1.93% | ● 1.58万 | 4218.73万 | | 600689 | 九号公司 | 57.87 | 0.71% | 4.85万 | 2.82亿 | | 603129 | 春风动力 | 292.60 | 0.38% | 9914.0 | 2.89亿 | | 920058 | 《法基主 | 31.31 | 0.35% | 7446.38 | 2349.55万 | | 601777 | 千里科技 | 10.42 | 0.00% | 15.58万 | 1.62亿 | | 603776 | 永安行 | 18.14 | -0.44% | 1.49万 | 2715.10万 | | 600818 | 中路股 ...

格隆汇12月12日丨隆鑫通用(603766.SH)在互动平台表示，关于本次墨西哥加征关税的措施，经公 司审慎评估，认为其对我司现有业务的直接影响非常有限。第一，核心业务模式有效规避了整车关税风 险。本次墨西哥将中国进口摩托车整车的关税调增至35%。但公司对墨西哥市场的出口长期采用 IKD模 式，即产品以全散件形式出关运至墨西哥当地合作工厂进行组装。因此该整车关税措施不适用于我司现 有出口业务；第二，对其他关联商品的影响非常有限。根据我们对法案文本的初步分析，其中所提及的 其他摩托车相关商品，其定义通常不涵盖以组装为最终目的的"散件"或"套件"。因此，该部分条款预计 对公司业务也影响有限。 综上，公司当前的业务结构能够比较有效地缓冲此次关税政策调整带来的冲 击，我们将持续密切关注全球贸易政策的动向，积极应对，以保障公司业务的稳健与可持续发展。 ...

Group 1: Commercial Vehicles - The core conclusion for heavy trucks indicates that exports will surpass domestic sales in 2026, with a focus on leading exporters [2] - In 2025, the total wholesale volume for heavy trucks is expected to reach 1.143 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, with domestic sales at 814,000 units (+35.2%) and exports at 332,000 units (+14.3%) [11][12] - The penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is projected to rise to 30%-35% in 2026, with natural gas trucks also expected to gain market share [2][11] Group 2: Buses - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected growth of 3% for domestic sales and 30% for exports [3][22] - The key players in the bus industry, such as Yutong and King Long, are anticipated to benefit from the recovery in both domestic and overseas markets [3][22] - The overall profitability of the bus sector is expected to improve, driven by the recovery in demand and the performance of leading companies [23][39] Group 3: Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to grow by 31% [4][29] - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 830,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 50% increase compared to the previous year [4][29] - Leading motorcycle manufacturers, such as Chunfeng and Longxin, are expected to benefit from the continued growth in exports and large-displacement motorcycle sales [4][30]

转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月12日电，隆鑫通用12月12日在互动平台表示，关于本次墨西哥加征关税的措施，经公司审 慎评估，认为其对公司现有业务的直接影响非常有限。第一，核心业务模式有效规避了整车关税风险。 本次墨西哥将中国进口摩托车整车的关税调增至35%。但公司对墨西哥市场的出口长期采用IKD模式， 即产品以全散件形式出关运至墨西哥当地合作工厂进行组装。因此该整车关税措施不适用于我司现有出 口业务；第二，对其他关联商品的影响非常有限。根据我们对法案文本的初步分析，其中所提及的其他 摩托车相关商品，其定义通常不涵盖以组装为最终目的的"散件"或"套件"。因此，该部分条款预计对公 司业务也影响有限。综上，公司当前的业务结构能够比较有效地缓冲此次关税政策调整带来的冲击。 ...

Core Insights - The fifth Chongqing Capital Market High-Quality Development Conference emphasized the importance of listed companies in driving the capital market's high-quality development, urging them to take on responsibilities in governance, innovation, and investor relations [1] Group 1: Listed Companies in Chongqing - As of now, Chongqing has 78 A-share listed companies with a market capitalization of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, these companies achieved operating revenue of 572.13 billion yuan and net profit of 32.96 billion yuan, with over 40% of firms experiencing growth in both metrics [2] - Chongqing's listed companies exhibit a "124+N" characteristic, with a national leading R&D investment of 14.768 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [2][3] Group 2: Key Performance Indicators - Chongqing's listed companies have the largest asset scale in Central and Western China, reaching 40.173 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025, a 7% year-on-year increase [3] - The refinancing scale of these companies reached 13 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 125.9% increase year-on-year, ranking second in Western China [3] - The number of companies with over 50% of revenue from overseas is second in Western China, with 7 companies achieving this in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Unique Industry Characteristics - Several companies in Chongqing have made significant achievements in their respective industries, such as Sanfeng Environment issuing the first "Belt and Road" technology innovation green corporate bond in the country [4] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank has the largest asset scale among rural commercial banks nationwide, while companies like Giant Network and Chongqing Beer lead in their respective sectors [4] Group 4: Two Rivers New Area Development - The Two Rivers New Area has 37 listed companies, contributing approximately 55.15% of the city's operating revenue and 49.35% of net profit, despite representing only 37% of the total number of listed companies [6] - Since the implementation of the "merger and acquisition six guidelines," Chongqing has seen active mergers and acquisitions, with 12 companies completing 14 transactions worth 35.276 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 637% increase year-on-year [6][7] Group 5: Recommendations for Future Development - The report suggests optimizing policy supply and reducing transaction costs for successful mergers, including offering preferential policies for projects that land in Chongqing and exploring the establishment of a "merger loan risk compensation fund" [7]

4项指标西部靠前。一是资产规模居中西部第一。截至2025年三季度末，重庆上市公司资产规模达40173 亿元，居中西部第一位。二是再融资规模居西部第二。2025年前三季度，重庆上市公司通过定向增发、 发行可转债实现再融资130亿元，居西部各省区第二位，同比增长125.9%。三是境外营收占比超50%的 企业数量居西部第二。2025年上半年，重庆上市公司实现境外营业收入313.9亿元，境外营收占比超 50%的有7家，数量居西部各省区的第二位。四是开展中期分红的上市公司数量及占比居西部第二。 2025年公布半年度、三季度现金分红预案的上市公司共22家，占比28.2%，均居西部第二位，现金分红 总额36亿元。 "N"即多家企业在各自行业独具特色。比如，赛力斯（601127）M9稳居50万元以上车型销量第一，隆鑫 通用（603766）摩托车出口规模连续19年居全国第一。重庆上市公司积极利用债券市场，形成多个"全 国"首发成果。比如，华邦健康（002004）发行今年全国首单民营企业可交换债。 截至目前，重庆共有A股上市公司78家，市值约1.3万亿元。2025年前三季度，重庆上市公司合计实现营 业收入5721.26亿元、净利 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日地摊经济板块主力资金净流出5.89亿元，游资资金净流入1.09亿元，散户资金净 流入4.8亿元。地摊经济板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603766 | 降葵通用 | 15.35 | -4.12% | 53.98万 | 8.35 Z | | 600828 | 茂业商业 | 5.89 | -2.32% | 133.37万 | 7.83亿 | | 002723 | 小松股份 | 9.38 | -1.68% | C 36.11万 | 3.31亿 | | 002330 | 得利斯 | 5.25 | -1.32% | 17.04万 | 8946.91万 | | 000550 | 江铃汽车 | 18.49 | -1.28% | 4.09万 | 7600.85万 | | 002489 | 浙江永强 | 3.97 | -1.24% | 29.38万 | 1.17亿 | | 002485 | ST雪发 | 4.18 | -1.18% | 4.68万 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 003033 | 征和工业 | 60.92 | 4.21% | 2.18万 | | 1.31亿 | | 301345 | 涛涛车业 | 218.20 | 2.39% | 1.29万 | | 2.83亿 | | 002105 | 信隆健康 | 7.74 | 1.84% | 29.22万 | | 2.25亿 | | 601777 | 千里科技 | 10.42 | 1.17% | 27.52万 | | 2.89亿 | | 920058 | 北法基本 | 31.70 | 0.96% | 2670.84 | | 849.94万 | | 301322 | 绿通科技 | 27.67 | 0.40% | 1.19万 | | 3290.69万 | | 300994 | 久祺股份 | 16.15 | 0.31% | 1.67万 | | 2692.73万 | | 603129 | 春风动力 | 278.71 | 0.26% | 1.17万 | | 3.2 ...