凯莱英：小分子重回稳健增长，新兴业务精彩纷呈-20250216

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the CDMO sector, providing comprehensive services for small molecule drugs and actively expanding into emerging business areas [1][19]. - The global biopharmaceutical industry is experiencing an upward demand trend, with a gradual improvement in the supply-demand structure for CDMO services [2][36]. - The small molecule business is stabilizing and entering a phase of commercial project harvest, while emerging businesses are also showing strong demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a top-tier CDMO service provider, serving over 1,100 clients globally and forming strong collaborative ties with major pharmaceutical companies [1][19]. - It has a well-rounded service offering that includes small molecule drug lifecycle outsourcing, with a focus on high-grade and large-scale products [20]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The biopharmaceutical industry is on an upward trajectory, with a balanced supply-demand structure expected to develop by 2025 [2][36]. - Small molecules continue to dominate the market, accounting for approximately 54.86% of the industry in 2023, while new therapies like peptides and oligonucleotides are gaining traction [2][51]. 3. Business Performance - The small molecule business is expected to see stable growth, with 28 projects anticipated to reach the PPQ stage in 2024 [3]. - Emerging business segments, including peptides and oligonucleotides, are experiencing robust demand, with significant growth expected starting in 2025 [4]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 5.886 billion, 6.761 billion, and 7.807 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 917 million, 1.163 billion, and 1.281 billion yuan [8][10]. - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth post-2024, driven by a rebound in demand and successful project commercialization [3][4].